This is one of the hardest races to predict a strategy for, owing to a number of different factors. First and foremost, track conditions. This asphalt is extremely new and slippery, with rapid evolution, but how much grip it will ultimately offer remains unknown. The weather makes those calculations considerably harder, with very cool track temperatures and rain today, while tomorrow’s conditions are still uncertain. Finally, there’s not much difference between a two-stopper and one-stopper.
On paper, a two-stopper is quicker – but teams always prefer a one-stopper, especially if they can somehow manage to do it on the two softer compounds this weekend. Right now, that seems almost impossible if graining on the soft stays the same as it’s been so far, but some teams might still try it. Alternatively, they might still go for a one-stopper using the White hard compound, if they can get it to work. All that obviously depends on what tomorrow’s race conditions will look like, so there are plenty of question marks.
In theory, a two-stopper is quickest: with two stints of 16 laps on the Red soft plus a Yellow medium stint of 26 laps (perhaps as the middle stint). Another way of doing it, if there’s graining on the soft, is just one 14-lap stint on the red tyre with two 22-lap stints on the medium.
If it’s warm enough to switch on the hard compound, the teams could try a one-stopper with 30 laps on medium and 28 laps on hard. Alternatively, 20 laps on soft and 38 laps on hard.